The Age of the Mediocre Polymath
AI is turning all of us into passable designers, average developers, and decent writers. But not experts. And if we’re not careful, we’ll start mistaking volume for value, and output for outcomes. “I can, therefore I will” is a thought process that destroys companies.
The Illusion of Mastery
When organizations flatten hierarchies and outsource key decision-making to AI, they create PMs who look like they know what they’re doing but lack the deep, nuanced understanding required for long-term success. AI-driven tools promise to exacerbate this further by making execution easier, reinforcing a cycle where PMs remain stuck in the mechanics of the role rather than engaging in deeper strategic thinking.
Conway’s Implication
If AI begins to assume all roles in the product development process — acting as product manager, designer, and engineer — we’re not just witnessing an evolution in product development; we’re staring at an extinction event for traditional workflows. With AI serving as both strategist and executor, organizational communication would become highly structured, frictionless, and nearly instantaneous. But what does this really mean?
Convolution / Evolution
The problem with unchecked and unintentional complexity is that it gradually narrows the 'solution space' — the range of future improvements, adjustments, or innovations that can be realistically pursued. Picture the solution space as a playground where designers and developers have room to explore new ideas and tackle emerging challenges. As complexity accumulates without careful management, walls begin to form in this playground, limiting the freedom to experiment and improve. Changes become riskier, and small tweaks can lead to a cascade of unintended consequences. The more convoluted the system, the fewer opportunities there are to introduce meaningful, impactful updates without further complicating the product or alienating users.
Innovating in a Loss Averse Environment
In my path to product management, I've been shaped by both luck and a diverse background in computer science, economics, and data analysis. Flexibility has been key as I’ve navigated various industries, from e-Commerce to FinTech to InsurTech. In highly regulated sectors, the challenge lies in balancing innovation with compliance, anticipating regulatory changes, and managing risks. I’ve learned that well-rounded skills and strong collaboration are essential to managing complexity and adapting effectively, especially when working within strict regulations while still driving meaningful product development.
From Physics to Product: The Importance of First Principles
How many of us have joined a new company and proposed a promising solution to a problem only to have it rejected with “we tried that n years ago and it didn’t work”? Or conversely, had a new executive join your company and repeat “here’s how we did things at my last company” ad nauseum? (I may or may not have been guilty of the latter in the past.) These are telltale signs of a surface level understanding. As Product Managers, and particularly as executives, we must be able to evaluate and convey the validity of ideas from first principles if we hope to maintain success across companies and over time.
Even in this world, more things exist without our knowledge than with it and the order in creation which you see is that which you have put there, like a string in a maze, so that you shall not lose your way.